Predicted Grades for 2027 University Entry: How They're Set (Baselines, ALPS, Mocks), Whether You Can Challenge Them, and What to Do If They're Too Low

Predicted grades decide which universities will read your child's application at all. For 2027 entry they are being set now: Oxbridge, medicine, dentistry and veterinary applicants need theirs before the 15 October 2026 UCAS deadline, and everyone else's lock when the reference goes in ahead of 13 January 2027. Here is where the numbers come from, how much room there is to argue, and what to do if they land low.

How predicted grades are set

Schools differ in the detail, but nearly all use three ingredients: the Year 12 end-of-year exams, evidence gathered since September, and a GCSE-derived baseline.

1. The Year 12 end-of-year exams

Most sixth forms ran internal Year 12 exams in June or early July 2026, often full papers under exam conditions. For many teachers this is the biggest single input — the only sustained timed evidence of the first year. A student who came out of June on a solid B starts Year 13 on a working grade of B, and the prediction starts there.

2. Autumn evidence and school policy

Between September and the reference deadline, teachers add what they have: a topic test, the first marked essay of Year 13, a timed past-paper question. Then policy shapes the number. Typical rules, and your school's are often on its website:

• Predict the grade the student is most likely to achieve, not the best case.
• Do not predict more than one grade above the current working grade.
• Do not predict above the Alps or FFT target without head-of-department sign-off.
• Only predict A* where there is A*-standard marked work.

3. The baseline: Alps, FFT and minimum expected grades

That third rule is the one that bites, so it is worth knowing where the target comes from. Many English sixth forms subscribe to Alps or FFT Aspire, some to both. Alps starts from the student's average GCSE score, using straight 9-1 points since September 2019: a grade 9 is worth 9, a grade 8 worth 8. That average puts the student in one of eleven prior-attainment bands. For each band Alps finds the school sitting at the 75th percentile nationally for progress — the bottom of the top quarter — and converts that outcome into a minimum expected grade, which Alps itself calls an aspiration, not a forecast.

Source: Alps Guide England 2024/25, Table 2. Alps re-benchmarks each year, so your school's boundaries may sit a fraction either side.

One detail surprises most parents: the minimum expected grade does not change by subject. Alps sets the same one across every A-level, whatever a subject's reputation for difficulty. GCSEs of 8, 8, 7, 7, 7, 6, 6, 6 and 5 average 6.67, so the minimum expected grade is B — in maths, in history, in everything. Many schools add an aspirational target a grade higher, so the sheet reads "target B, aspirational A".

Neither number is the predicted grade. That is the teacher's call on the most likely outcome, usually capped one grade above the working grade. The baseline itself cannot move, because it comes from GCSEs already banked — the grades our guide to sixth form entry requirements covers.

FFT Aspire pegs its estimates to school ranks instead: FFT 50 is what similar students achieved at schools making average progress, FFT 20 at schools in the top fifth. An "FFT 20 target" is a stretch benchmark, not a prediction.

What about the September baseline test?

Some sixth forms run baseline tests in the first fortnight of Year 12 — reasoning papers, or a short subject diagnostic. They set teaching groups and find gaps early. They do not feed a UCAS prediction a year later, and a poor one only bites if the school turns it into a low target — a floor, not a ceiling.

How accurate are predictions?

Generous, mostly. Murphy and Wyness analysed UCAS records for the 2013, 2014 and 2015 cycles — nearly 1.4 million applicants in the related UCU report. Just 16% were predicted accurately, 75% were over-predicted and 8.5% under-predicted, with under-prediction falling hardest on high-attaining disadvantaged students. A prediction a grade above the June result is normal; one below what the student is currently producing is unusual, and worth questioning.

The 2027-entry timeline: when predictions lock

One rule sits underneath all of it: once the application is submitted, the predictions in it do not change. UCAS will not edit them, and universities will not take a new number from a parent.

Can you challenge a predicted grade?

Yes, but "challenge" oversells it. There is no right of appeal, no UCAS process, and universities will not get involved. What exists is your school's policy, which nearly always lets a student ask for a review on new evidence. Treat it as a request backed by marked work, not a complaint.

The window

For January applicants, predictions are usually shared between late September and the end of October, and the reference goes in between late November and mid-December (typical — check your school): three to six weeks. For 15 October applicants it is often a fortnight in September, so Oxbridge and medicine candidates should ask early.

Evidence teachers respond to

What does not work: a parents' evening promise, "the offer needs an A", comparisons with classmates, unmarked revision notes, or a parent asking before the student has.

How to ask

1. Student first. Ask the subject teacher what evidence would move the prediction, and by when. Write the answer down.
2. Get the policy. It states the rules, and often a formal review route.
3. Produce the evidence: a marked past paper at the higher grade, plus consistent classwork over four to six weeks.
4. Agree a checkpoint two weeks before the internal reference deadline.
5. Parent email if needed: short, factual, to the head of sixth form.

If the teacher still says no

Escalate once, in writing, and ask for the reason against the policy. If it stands, stop pushing: Section 3 of the structured UCAS reference is where the school adds supportive context about the student, and you want that paragraph warm.

If the predictions stay low

Build the five choices around the prediction, not the dream

UCAS allows five choices, no more than four of them medicine, dentistry or veterinary. The usual shape is one aspirational (offer a grade above the prediction), two or three at the prediction, one safe choice below. Students then pick a firm and an insurance choice, and the insurance must genuinely be lower: predicted BBB, firm an ABB offer, insure at BBC, and a one-grade slip is covered.

Check the course requirements first: our guide to A-level combinations universities want has them, and if Oxbridge is on the list the Oxbridge applications guide explains why the test and interview outweigh the prediction.

Use contextual offers

Most universities publish contextual criteria and drop the offer by one or two grades for eligible applicants. Common triggers: free school meals, a home postcode in the lowest quintile for higher-education participation (POLAR4 or TUNDRA), a school with low progression to university, being care-experienced, or an access programme. Each sets its own list and adjustment, so check the course page before writing a choice off.

Typical gap between offer and prediction, by course type

Typical patterns, not rules — check each course page.

Year 13 mocks, results day and Clearing

Universities never see Year 13 mocks. What they see on Thursday 12 August 2027 is the real grade. Mocks are for the student, not the application: they show whether the prediction is being earned. A near-miss at a firm choice is often confirmed anyway, particularly at mid-tariff universities, so phone admissions on results morning before assuming the worst. A student who beats the prediction can use the "decline my place" button to self-release into Clearing, which opens 1 July 2027 but only comes alive on results day.

If grades fall well short and the course is non-negotiable, the honest route is a retake year — our A-level resit guide covers the private-candidate route.

Do not wait for the mocks to act

The pattern we see most: a prediction a grade below what the student needs, in the one subject where the June paper went badly. The fix is targeted work on it before the reference deadline. Unsure it warrants a tutor? Our guide to the A-level trigger moments will tell you. If it does, book a free online meet-the-tutor session: a real adviser calls you at the time you choose (9am to 8pm, every day), you can meet as many tutors as you like, free until you're matched, and lessons are from £18 an hour, pay as you go, no contracts. All tuition is online, one-to-one and recorded, so it fits a Year 13 timetable.

FAQ

Do universities see mock results?

No. The application carries GCSE results, predicted A-level grades, the personal statement and the reference. A referee can mention a strong mock; the grade itself is never submitted.

Can predicted grades go up after they have been set?

Yes, right up to the moment the school submits the reference. After that the number is fixed. A school can write to universities with an update, but it is rare and none has to act on it.

What if the teacher refuses to change the prediction?

Ask for the reason against the school's written policy and escalate once to the head of sixth form. If the decision stands, adjust the five choices instead: a low prediction limits where the student applies, not what they achieve in August.

Can a poor September baseline test be changed?

The GCSE-based baseline cannot, because those grades are banked. A September Year 12 test is a diagnostic, not a prediction, and any target it produces is a floor. What changes is the working grade, updated with every marked assessment — and that is what the prediction is built on.

Sources

• UCAS, 2027-entry dates and deadlines (every date in the timeline above).
• JCQ Key Dates June 2027: A-level results 12 August 2027.
• Alps Guide England 2024/25, Table 2; Alps, "The Change in KS5 Prior Attainment 2019/20"; FFT Aspire, Key Stage 5 target setting.
• Murphy, R. and Wyness, G., "Minority Report", Education Economics 28(4), 2020; Wyness, G., "Predicted grades: accuracy and impact", UCU, 2016.